OK, enough's enough. The MetOffice have remodelled our weather and the proof is outside my window as I write: early sunshine and clear skies. Whatever they did to the Ullapool forecast model, it has certainly worked. Which means I can concentrate now on boats (what this blog is allegedly all about).
Yesterday, a day of mixed weather... (dang, there I go again). OK, yesterday I drove down to Forres (incidentally the name of my first school, under the strict headmastership of Mr McKay, an archetypical Scotsman who delighted in clipping ears and slapping wrists but never viciously - didn't do me any harm, etc etc) to pick up the timber for the gun punt. The frames will be of 12x80mm oak, but doubled where more strength is needed, the stringers of Douglas. Planking will be 9mm plywood from Robbins, the topsides possibly in larch. We will see.
While at the sawmill I was shown some lovely pine from the Queen's forests, and will put my name down for some, in the increasing absence of good boatskin larch.
Seems like the wretched architects have "discovered" larch cladding, so all the good stuff we used to have for boats is being slapped on the sides of eco-buildings. All the really good stuff. Having exhausted the cheap Siberian stuff - that was beautiful as well - they are now hacking into the best boat building timber.
So this pine (the Scandinavians had no issues with the stuff) will be a good substitute, but I was warned "Don't leave it too long as the cladding Mafia have been sniffing round..."
Friday, March 18, 2011
Thursday, March 17, 2011
Result (I think...)
I have over the past few weeks been tirelessly trying to improve the weather up here, and the MetOffice seem to agree that we deserve better. To their credit they have responded magnificently and we now have a new model for Ullapool (although new weather is what I was really after).
So here is the good news from my new best friend, Sarah Spedding at the MetOffice in Exeter (who, despite her cheery note, must be heartily sick of me by now. Bless you Sarah...)
Good morning Adrian,
I do hope the weather is coming up to expectation this morning?
The changes my scientific colleagues intend to make to the model have yet to be applied but the first part should become operational today. However, to be effective some site information needs to be adjusted which will be via a subsequent change in the next couple of weeks. This might not resolve everything especially in the context of air flow because it is a product of how the model resolves the difficult terrain on a 4km grid in the Ullapool vicinity.
In terms of the changing forecast you highlighted, this is unfortunately unavoidable at present. Both the days were showery and we suspect all weather types occurred at some point. We cannot predict the formation, growth, movement and decay of individual showers with any accuracy beyond a few hours ahead. What we can do is produce reasonable forecasts of the areas in which the showers will occur and the likely intensity and distribution. But just as in reality on a showery day, some locations can miss the showers, so there will be points in the model that are between showers, particularly where showers are slow moving and well scattered. This explains the difference noted because in one run the showers happen to miss Ullapool and in the next the shower distribution is slightly different and Ullapool gets showers! It is possible to resolve this simply by blending together model runs, thereby smoothing out run to run "noise" and giving more consistency between web forecast updates; we are pursuing this for a late summer release. We are also as you know, moving in the direction of probabilities, for example "sunny intervals with a 30% chance of showers".
Whatever approach we take, there will always be instances where new information makes the forecast change and occasions where straighforwardly we get it wrong. As previously advised it is always our recommendation to read the regional text forecast alongside the location-specific forecast because, whilst the forecasters cannot give local detail, (the model does that), they can bring out in the text forecast far more of the uncertainty and indicate possible alternative outcomes.
Finally, thank you for our exchange of emails. I do hope I have been able to reassure you that we do listen and take feedback seriously and I hope you agree we are moving in the right direction to make the forecasts more helpful to you and other Ullapool residents.
Kind Regards
Sarah Spedding Customer Feedback Co-ordinator
Met Office FitzRoy Road Exeter EX1 3PB United Kingdom
Tel: +44 (0)0870 900 0100 Fax: +44 (0)1392 885681
E-mail: enquiries@metoffice.gov.uk http://www.metoffice.gov.uk
So here is the good news from my new best friend, Sarah Spedding at the MetOffice in Exeter (who, despite her cheery note, must be heartily sick of me by now. Bless you Sarah...)
 |
| The joy of Strathkanaird in the sunshine (but note the rainbow) |
Good morning Adrian,
I do hope the weather is coming up to expectation this morning?
The changes my scientific colleagues intend to make to the model have yet to be applied but the first part should become operational today. However, to be effective some site information needs to be adjusted which will be via a subsequent change in the next couple of weeks. This might not resolve everything especially in the context of air flow because it is a product of how the model resolves the difficult terrain on a 4km grid in the Ullapool vicinity.
In terms of the changing forecast you highlighted, this is unfortunately unavoidable at present. Both the days were showery and we suspect all weather types occurred at some point. We cannot predict the formation, growth, movement and decay of individual showers with any accuracy beyond a few hours ahead. What we can do is produce reasonable forecasts of the areas in which the showers will occur and the likely intensity and distribution. But just as in reality on a showery day, some locations can miss the showers, so there will be points in the model that are between showers, particularly where showers are slow moving and well scattered. This explains the difference noted because in one run the showers happen to miss Ullapool and in the next the shower distribution is slightly different and Ullapool gets showers! It is possible to resolve this simply by blending together model runs, thereby smoothing out run to run "noise" and giving more consistency between web forecast updates; we are pursuing this for a late summer release. We are also as you know, moving in the direction of probabilities, for example "sunny intervals with a 30% chance of showers".
Whatever approach we take, there will always be instances where new information makes the forecast change and occasions where straighforwardly we get it wrong. As previously advised it is always our recommendation to read the regional text forecast alongside the location-specific forecast because, whilst the forecasters cannot give local detail, (the model does that), they can bring out in the text forecast far more of the uncertainty and indicate possible alternative outcomes.
Finally, thank you for our exchange of emails. I do hope I have been able to reassure you that we do listen and take feedback seriously and I hope you agree we are moving in the right direction to make the forecasts more helpful to you and other Ullapool residents.
Kind Regards
Sarah Spedding Customer Feedback Co-ordinator
Met Office FitzRoy Road Exeter EX1 3PB United Kingdom
Tel: +44 (0)0870 900 0100 Fax: +44 (0)1392 885681
E-mail: enquiries@metoffice.gov.uk http://www.metoffice.gov.uk
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
What a day!
Well, as promised the MetOffice remodelled the Ullapool weather programme for us and, lo! we had sun today... all day. No clouds, warm(ish) and a gentle north easterly which veered at lunchtime to SE and then south. That signalled the end of my working day (or at least a break until the evening) to head for the hills with a couple of gliders: the Simprop Solution, a 2.8m German machine, and later a Graupner Elektro Junior motorised glider and a Czech-built 2.8m Proxima slope soarer.
What joy! The wind was bang on the hill, and if the lift wasn't great all the time, when it was great the sky was the limit. And then, more joy. A huge speck in the sky about 1,000ft above turned into a golden eagle which, seeing the intruder, circled round for a look. I was hoping sooner or later a thermalling eagle would spot the glider. Last year another glider of mine came under attack, and still bears the scars. This time it kept its distance, lurking a few hundred feet above.
All this and a full day writing a piece about Antarctica for a travel magazine and editing some artists' CVs (what a nightnare). These are days to savour. Full days which begin at 7am and end at 7pm with a glass of whisky. This is why we live in the Highlands, although ask me why a few weeks ago and I would not have been able to give you a good answer. And it's not looking too bad for the rest of the week either.
What joy! The wind was bang on the hill, and if the lift wasn't great all the time, when it was great the sky was the limit. And then, more joy. A huge speck in the sky about 1,000ft above turned into a golden eagle which, seeing the intruder, circled round for a look. I was hoping sooner or later a thermalling eagle would spot the glider. Last year another glider of mine came under attack, and still bears the scars. This time it kept its distance, lurking a few hundred feet above.
All this and a full day writing a piece about Antarctica for a travel magazine and editing some artists' CVs (what a nightnare). These are days to savour. Full days which begin at 7am and end at 7pm with a glass of whisky. This is why we live in the Highlands, although ask me why a few weeks ago and I would not have been able to give you a good answer. And it's not looking too bad for the rest of the week either.
Friday, March 11, 2011
Met Office Latest
OK, so the Met Office having forecasted everything from a glorious spring day with fluffy clouds and a gentle westerly, wafting balmily up the strath, to a full blow snowstorm, what really happened today? Well, The Met Office got it right, in as much as that one of the numerous versions of our weather forecast over the last few days was spot on. Which was hardly surprising as they had tried pretty much everything, in the hope presumably that something might stick.
Trouble is, having said we were to have snow on Friday, late on Thursday afternoon, they chickened out on Friday morning, and as the snow swirled around our little croft house, it was amusing to see on the website the good news that our eyes were in fact mistaken, and those huge snow flakes were indeed cherry blossom.
Certainly felt like snow on my face as I ventured out in T shirt and shorts confident that the money we spend on our weathermen was fully justified. Later, nursing frostbite, I had to admit that my faith was possibly not wholly warranted. Soon afterwards a sheep flew past my window, hastened onwards by a strong westerly wind...
I wonder what's in store for tomorrow?
Trouble is, having said we were to have snow on Friday, late on Thursday afternoon, they chickened out on Friday morning, and as the snow swirled around our little croft house, it was amusing to see on the website the good news that our eyes were in fact mistaken, and those huge snow flakes were indeed cherry blossom.
Certainly felt like snow on my face as I ventured out in T shirt and shorts confident that the money we spend on our weathermen was fully justified. Later, nursing frostbite, I had to admit that my faith was possibly not wholly warranted. Soon afterwards a sheep flew past my window, hastened onwards by a strong westerly wind...
I wonder what's in store for tomorrow?
Met Office? They haven't the Foggiest
Become a bit obsessed with the weather up here, or rather what the Met Office think we should be getting. The truth is, for all their terrabytes and super computers, they are more often than not completely wrong.
One example. On Thursday afternoon they said we would be getting a nice, sunny-ish day on Friday. Later that same afternoon they changed their prediction and reckoned we would have snow the next day.
Meanwhile their wind directions ranged from west to south east to variable and north east, seemingly at random. Friday morning broke cold and sleaty, more or less as forecast the afternoon before, but the weather far from deteriorating, was now due to look up (a bit like what they said in the first place). Crucially, all mention of snow from midday onwards had gone, the sun would appear around 3pm and the wind, rather than from the north north east, was now predicted to be west south west!
Basically, the Met Office haven't a clue when it comes to forecasting our weather. Either that or they have a malicious streak which seeks to raise our spirits falsely with a good forecast, and then, cruelly, give us a horrible one a few hours later. Then, just when we are totally confused and depressed (and an hour or so before we get the real weather and can see for ourselves), they consult their weather stations and give us the true story. That's not a forecast defined as "to predict in advance". It's inspired guesswork.
Just admit it: you haven't the foggiest idea of what's going on up here, in which case, don't guess, just give me a bell and I'll tell you.
One example. On Thursday afternoon they said we would be getting a nice, sunny-ish day on Friday. Later that same afternoon they changed their prediction and reckoned we would have snow the next day.
Meanwhile their wind directions ranged from west to south east to variable and north east, seemingly at random. Friday morning broke cold and sleaty, more or less as forecast the afternoon before, but the weather far from deteriorating, was now due to look up (a bit like what they said in the first place). Crucially, all mention of snow from midday onwards had gone, the sun would appear around 3pm and the wind, rather than from the north north east, was now predicted to be west south west!
Basically, the Met Office haven't a clue when it comes to forecasting our weather. Either that or they have a malicious streak which seeks to raise our spirits falsely with a good forecast, and then, cruelly, give us a horrible one a few hours later. Then, just when we are totally confused and depressed (and an hour or so before we get the real weather and can see for ourselves), they consult their weather stations and give us the true story. That's not a forecast defined as "to predict in advance". It's inspired guesswork.
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
6,000th Visitor
Any day now and the 6,000th visitor will click on this site. I suspect that most of those who have stumbled across this load of indulgent nonsense have done so accidentally, and just once - probably en route to a site selling secondhand boots. Then there are some stalwart regulars who check in most days, according to the statistics, to see what's on my mind that day. Usually of little import, to be honest.
Of late it's been a question of getting the new Flying Fifteen Ffelicity back from the deep south and working out where all the strings go. I reckon that's sorted. And it's so nice to work on your own boat for a change. Pure bliss, in fact, fiddling and fettling.
Now it's time to get down to the next paying project. Yes, the gun punt is back on the stocks, the first thing to do is scale up the plans from 18ft to 23ft 6in. These punts are deceptively simple. There's a spring to the bottom, fore and aft (a gentle rocker in effect) without which the thing won't turn. Too much and it will spin when you paddle it.
The recoil from that huge fowling piece needs taming as well (see that hefty rope from the bow?) And lots more details. And for those who object to the use such craft are put, reflect on how much crueller to raise chickens in cages. It is an ancient sport, full of lore and literature, and art. It is, above all, not easy, requiring skill, patience, stamina and an intimate knowledge of the birds they hunt. I don't really know why I feel the need to justify it.
Of late it's been a question of getting the new Flying Fifteen Ffelicity back from the deep south and working out where all the strings go. I reckon that's sorted. And it's so nice to work on your own boat for a change. Pure bliss, in fact, fiddling and fettling.
Now it's time to get down to the next paying project. Yes, the gun punt is back on the stocks, the first thing to do is scale up the plans from 18ft to 23ft 6in. These punts are deceptively simple. There's a spring to the bottom, fore and aft (a gentle rocker in effect) without which the thing won't turn. Too much and it will spin when you paddle it.
The recoil from that huge fowling piece needs taming as well (see that hefty rope from the bow?) And lots more details. And for those who object to the use such craft are put, reflect on how much crueller to raise chickens in cages. It is an ancient sport, full of lore and literature, and art. It is, above all, not easy, requiring skill, patience, stamina and an intimate knowledge of the birds they hunt. I don't really know why I feel the need to justify it.
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
Mooring Fees and Flying Fifteens
Just been advised that the Royal Wedding is to be funded by the Crown Estate, the same bunch that charge us £40 to rent a bit of the seabed every year. They denied it, of course, which is a pity because it would have been a great stick with which to beat them: "Exclusive: Boat Owners Pay for Royal Wedding".
In fact, as a tax gathering body, the Crown Estate revenue from poor boat owners goes straight to the Exchequer (it does not go to pay for Camilla's hats, as rumoured), so we are, in fact, paying for the wedding one way or another.
My main objection to paying a mooring fee at all is: How can anyone own the seabed anyway? What do we get out of it? They do not lay or maintain the mooring, let alone maintain the seabed; they cannot prevent other boats laying moorings nearby and appear to have no powers to get moorings moved if they are too close. No, they just collect tax from us, and get volunteers to collect it for them, in the form of local moorings association secretaries. Cunning, eh?
And they also, I believe, issue licences to fish farms to use sites, then, having approved the sites, charge the farms rent. Even more cunning, no?
On a lighter note, the new (or rather old) Flying Fifteen of past posts arrived last week, after a 1200-miles trip down south and back, where she was christened by my mum Ffelicity in a little ceremony outside the family home in Dorset. My mum, with Fablon fascinator (that's the thing women wear on their heads at royal weddings) did the honours, as the dishcloth (seen here on the seat of my father's scooter) slid from the bow to reveal the name. Gor' Bless 'er (my mum that is...)
In fact, as a tax gathering body, the Crown Estate revenue from poor boat owners goes straight to the Exchequer (it does not go to pay for Camilla's hats, as rumoured), so we are, in fact, paying for the wedding one way or another.
My main objection to paying a mooring fee at all is: How can anyone own the seabed anyway? What do we get out of it? They do not lay or maintain the mooring, let alone maintain the seabed; they cannot prevent other boats laying moorings nearby and appear to have no powers to get moorings moved if they are too close. No, they just collect tax from us, and get volunteers to collect it for them, in the form of local moorings association secretaries. Cunning, eh?
And they also, I believe, issue licences to fish farms to use sites, then, having approved the sites, charge the farms rent. Even more cunning, no?
On a lighter note, the new (or rather old) Flying Fifteen of past posts arrived last week, after a 1200-miles trip down south and back, where she was christened by my mum Ffelicity in a little ceremony outside the family home in Dorset. My mum, with Fablon fascinator (that's the thing women wear on their heads at royal weddings) did the honours, as the dishcloth (seen here on the seat of my father's scooter) slid from the bow to reveal the name. Gor' Bless 'er (my mum that is...)
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